ISSN: 2149-2247 | E-ISSN: 2149-2549
Volume : 44 Issue : 1 Year : 2022
Analysis of HIV Infection in Cyprus Using a Mathematical Model [Erciyes Med J]
Erciyes Med J. 2022; 44(1): 63-67 | DOI: 10.14744/etd.2021.32855

Analysis of HIV Infection in Cyprus Using a Mathematical Model

Nazife Sultanoğlu1, Farouk Saad3, Tamer Şanlıdağ2, Evren Hıncal3, Murat Sayan4, Bilgen Kaymakamzade3, Kaya Süer5
1Department of Medical Microbiology and Clinical Microbiology, Near East University Faculty of Medicine, Nicosia, The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus; Near East University, DESAM Research Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
2Near East University, DESAM Research Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus
3Near East University, DESAM Research Institute, Nicosia, Cyprus; Near East University, Department of Mathematics, Nicosia, Cyprus
4Near East University, Department of Mathematics, Nicosia, Clinical Laboratory, PCR Unit, Kocaeli University Faculty of Medicine, Kocaeli, Turkey
5Department of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Microbiology, Near East University Faculty of Medicine, Nicosia, The Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus

Objective: The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has a high rate of human transit as a result of tourism, human trafficking, and migration, which could contribute to the rate of HIV infection. The island is divided into 2 states – the northern portion is mainly populated by Turkish-Cypriots, and the southern portion is populated by Greek-Cypriots. The aim of this study was to assess the dynamics of HIV infection in both segments of Cyprus using a mathematical model.
Materials and Methods: Data of HIV-positive individuals diagnosed during the period 1997–2018 in northern Cyprus were obtained from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health database, yielding a total of 129 cases, and data for the southern region, the Republic of Cyprus, were retrieved from a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2013 report and ECDC/World Health Organization 2017 data. The total number of reported HIV infections was 1057. A mathematical model was used to evaluate the current and future HIV infection rate.
Results: Stability analysis of the equilibrium point – disease-free or endemic – was conducted using the Lyapunov function. The basic reproduction number, represented as R0, is a measure of the potential for disease spread and serves as a threshold for stability. The R0 value was 0.83 in northern Cyprus and 0.040 in southern Cyprus. An R0 indicated a disease-free equilibrium.
Conclusion: The calculations suggest that there is no current HIV epidemic on either part of the island; however, the model predicted a significant increase in the near future.

Keywords: Analysis, HIV, Cyprus, epidemic, mathematical model.

Nazife Sultanoğlu, Farouk Saad, Tamer Şanlıdağ, Evren Hıncal, Murat Sayan, Bilgen Kaymakamzade, Kaya Süer. Analysis of HIV Infection in Cyprus Using a Mathematical Model. Erciyes Med J. 2022; 44(1): 63-67

Corresponding Author: Nazife Sultanoğlu, Cyprus
Manuscript Language: English
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